Imagine being so good at something that people come to you for guidance. That was Abraham Bredius, the top expert in Dutch art history, especially when it came to Johannes Vermeer, the master painter of the 17th century. But as Bredius's story shows, even the most competent experts can make serious mistakes.
The Big Reveal
In 1937, at the ripe old age of 82, Abraham Bredius was enjoying his retirement in Monaco. Then, out of the blue, a lawyer named Gerard Boon paid him a visit. Boon brought a recently discovered painting of Christ and the Disciples at Emmaus and was hoping Bredius might confirm his belief that Vermeer painted it.
Bredius loved the painting. He told Boon it was the best work by Vermeer and completely original. He even wrote in a magazine about how pure and untouched the painting was.
The Great Deception
But Abraham Bredius was wrong. The painting was a fake, made just weeks before.
The twist didn’t end there. After Bredius endorsed the fake Vermeer, other fake Vermeer paintings started popping up in the market. The Dutch art world, trusting Bredius’s expertise, took these forgeries as original paintings.
Johannes Vermeer only made around forty paintings. So, when six paintings suddenly showed up, it should have raised red flags. But no one questioned it.
A Rotterdam museum bought this fake Christ and the Disciples at Emmaus for a huge sum.
The whole scam fooled Abraham Bredius and the Dutch art world. But the forgery wasn’t discovered until 1945.
The Truth Unveiled
Allied Art Commission officers visited Han van Meegeren's Amsterdam mansion in May 1945. van Meegeren, once a failed artist turned successful art dealer, lived in luxury. He hosted extravagant parties when the rest of the city was starving.
The officers came with a serious charge: Han van Meegeren had sold a fake Vermeer painting, The Woman Taken in Adultery, to Hermann Goering.
Goering was a Nazi from Germany and Hitler’s right-hand man. There was a receipt to prove it.
Han van Meegeren was arrested for treason, a crime punishable by hanging.
He surprised everyone by revealing that the painting wasn't by Vermeer and that he had painted it himself.
Goering had paid a lot of money for the fake painting. When this news broke, there was a big uproar.
Van Meegeren was seen as a hero for deceiving the Nazis and making them look foolish.
What Went Wrong?
In "How to Make the World Add Up," Tim Harford explains why Abraham Bredius, a master art historian, was fooled. The answer lies in human emotions.
We sometimes want to be deceived. No matter how knowledgeable you are, you still believe things that aren’t true and overlook important facts.
Bredius was very moved by Christ at Emmaus. He was excited to find new works by Vermeer. He also believed Vermeer might have been inspired by the Italian artist Caravaggio.
Han van Meegeren knew about Bredius’s ideas so he painted Christ at Emmaus using old techniques to trick him.
When Bredius saw the painting, he thought it proved his theory about Vermeer’s link to Italy, although it didn’t match other Vermeer works. He wanted to believe his theory, so he ignored evidence that didn’t fit.
What to do?
Even experts can mess up when they let emotions rule their decisions.
Tim Harford, in How to Make the World Add Up: Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers, suggests taking a moment to reflect on how you feel about new information before reacting or sharing it.
Are your emotions clouding your judgment? Are you using the information at hand to support a belief you already have? Are you using it to win an argument or reject something?
This method isn’t perfect, but it can be helpful.
Emotions are powerful so you can’t ignore them.
Pay attention to your emotions to make better decisions and dodge big mistakes like Abraham Bredius's.
The Vermeer Illusion: How Creative Thinking Led to an Epic Art Scam